Beware revenge of 'top-up fees generation' poll warns Labour

Next year's general election will be the first for many students who started their university education in 2006 - the year when top-up fees were introduced. The poll's warning was echoed by Jon Cruddas MP who called on the party to make education a natural Labour issue and to force the Tories to show their hand on the issue.
 
While President Obama secured an extra 3.4m votes from young people on the way to the White House¹, UCU is warning that the 'top-up fees generation' may reap revenge on Labour unless it commits not to increase university tuition fees further.
 
In the 2005 general election Labour led the Tories among 18-24 year olds by 38% to 28%². Now the Conservatives lead by 35% to 27%³ and UCU said today that any party wishing to win the next election could not afford to ignore voters on the controversial issue of student funding.
 
UCU has identified 20 key constituencies where the 'top-up fees generation' make up a substantial proportion of the population. Of those constituencies, half (10) are currently held by a Labour MP and five of them have a majority of less than 6,000. Only Hilary Benn (Leeds Central) enjoys a majority of over 10,000.
 
The full list of the top 20 constituencies in terms of young people can be found here: Top 20 MPs with youth vote [49kb]
 
Even in 2005, when top-up fees had been given the green light by Labour but not yet introduced, their unpopularity had led to defeat for Labour in seats with large populations of students⁴. The poll shows that, as well as being overwhelmingly unpopular among young people, increasing fees is opposed by the majority of voters with 62% of people polled rejecting higher fees.
 
Key findings of the poll on attitudes to university tuition fees include:

• 85% of 18-24 year olds disagree, or disagree strongly, that universities should be allowed to increase tuition fees
• overall, 62% of people polled disagree, or disagree strongly, that universities should be allowed to increase tuition fees
• 64% of people who said they would vote Labour at the next election disagree, or disagree strongly, that universities should be allowed to increase tuition fees
• 69% of people who said they would vote Liberal Democrat at the next election disagree, or disagree strongly, that universities should be allowed to increase tuition fees
• 60% of people who said they would vote Conservative at the next election disagree, or disagree strongly, that universities should be allowed to increase tuition fees.

UCU general secretary, Sally Hunt, said: 'Today's poll shows that the country, and in particular the top-up fees generation, will not stomach further increases in the cost of going to university.

'Someone once said that the Labour Party was at its best when it was being bold. Well now is the time for politicians to be bold to win back the hearts and minds of our young people, as President Obama did in his road to the White House.  The top-up fees generation will be crucial in many seat at the next election.'

Responding to UCU's poll and speaking ahead of Labour Party conference, Labour MP for Dagenham, John Cruddas, said: 'In my constituency just 20% of people have a degree or better – the same percentage that have no qualifications at all. That cannot be right, particularly when just 15 miles across London in Kensington and Chelsea, 60% have degrees and only 5% have no qualifications.

'Access to education is a central driver of equality and should be a natural Labour issue, not least because it is such an important priority for the younger voters that Labour must persuade if we are to win another term.  On this issue we can and should be forcing the Tories to show their hand as the party of privilege by being bold.'

The poll also shows disenchantment among young people over the failure to provide university places for all those who wished to go this year with 70% saying those who get good enough grades should be guaranteed a place at university. The capping of university places policy was not a popular one across the board either, with 64% of all those polled agreeing with the younger generation.

People of all ages agreed with the statement that 'the government must find money to fund courses at local colleges for everyone who would benefit from further education and cannot afford it'. 71% of those polled agreed with the statement and at least 70% of people polled in each age bracket did as well.

Key findings of the poll on attitudes to education funding include:

• 64% think that every young person who meets the entry requirements for university should be guaranteed a place to continue their studies
• 70% of 18-24 year olds think that every young person who meets the entry requirements for university should be guaranteed a place to continue their studies
• 71% think that the government must find money to fund courses at local colleges for everyone who would benefit from further education and cannot afford it.

Notes

All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc.  Total sample size was 2095 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 18 - 21 September 2009.  The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+).

1. 'An estimated 23 million young Americans under the age of 30 voted in the 2008 presidential election, an increase of 3.4 million compared with 2004. CIRCLE estimates that youth voter turnout rose to between 52 and 53 percent, an increase of four to five percentage points over CIRCLE's estimate based on the 2004 exit polls. The 2004 election was a strong one for youth turnout, reversing a long history of decline. If we compare 2008 with 2000, the increase in youth turnout is at least 11 percentage points.' The Center For Information And Research On Civic Learning and Engagement fact sheet. Full details here - Civic Youth polls
2. British Polling Council
3. ICM research - Guardian poll
4. 'It is likely that Labour's difficulties in seats with large student populations stemmed from another controversial decision made by the Government between 2001 and 2005, one that again was opposed by the Liberal Democrats. This was the introduction of so-called 'top-up' university fees in England, a decision made despite the fact that in its 2001 manifesto Labour had indicated that it opposed the introduction of such fees. It would appear that this decision cost Labour votes amongst those in higher education and may perhaps have contributed more generally to a perception amongst some voters that the Government in general and the Prime Minister could no longer be trusted.' J. Curtice, S. Fisher and M, Steed, 'Appendix 2: The Results Analysed', in D. Kavanagh and D. Butler, The British General Election of 2005, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2005